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Abstract for:

Immigration, Local Crowd-Out and Undercoverage Bias

Michael  Amior,  January 2020
Paper No' CEPDP1669: | Full paper (pdf)
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Keywords: immigration, geographical mobility, local labor markets, employment

JEL Classification: J61; J64; R23

Is hard copy/paper copy available? YES - Paper Copy Still In Print.
This Paper is published under the following series: CEP Discussion Papers
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Using decadal census data since 1960, I cannot reject the hypothesis that new immigrants crowd out existing residents from US commuting zones and states one-for-one. My estimate is precise and robust to numerous specifications, as well as accounting for local dynamics; and I show how it can be reconciled with apparently conflicting results in the literature. Exploiting my model's structure, I attribute 30% of the observed effect to mismeasurement, specifically undercoverage of immigrants. Though labor demand does respond, population mobility accounts for 90% of local adjustment. These results have important implications for both structural and reduced form estimation of immigration effects.