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Abstract for:

Predicting the Geography of House Prices

Bernard  Fingleton,  February 2010
Paper No' SERCDP0045: | Full paper (pdf)
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Keywords: new economic geography; real estate prices, spatial econometrics, panel data, prediction

JEL Classification: C21; C31; O18; R12; R31

Is hard copy/paper copy available? YES - Paper Copy Still In Print.
This Paper is published under the following series: SERC Discussion Papers
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Prediction is difficult. In this paper we use panel data methods to make reasonably accurate shortterm ex-post predictions of house prices across 353 local authority areas in England. The issue of prediction over the longer term is also addressed, and a simple method that makes use of the dynamics embodied in New Economic geography theory is suggested as a possible way to approach the problem.