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Boris Johnson’s Brexit plan would leave knock up to £50bn off the economy and leave everyone in the UK £2,000 worse off, new analysis has found.
The Academic think-tank The UK in a Changing Europe said the plan that is the subject of intense negotiations between UK and EU officials would be worse for the UK economy than Theresa May’s deal.
The current proposal being discussed in Brussels would hit public finances by up to £49bn, the study found, with even that best-case scenario resulting in a £16bn fall in GDP.
The economic impact of Boris Johnson's Brexit proposals is written by Hanwei Huang, Jonathan Portes, Thomas Sampson, and Anand Menon with contributions from Matt Bevington and Jill Rutter.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) releases its Pink and Blue Books on the balance of payments at the end of October (interestingly the date is later than usual and coincides with the current Brexit departure date), but there are fears that sterling's lower value against major currencies since the 2016 referendum has exacerbated the current account deficit. London School of Economics trade expert Dr Swati Dhingra
notes many UK sectors with highly integrated global supply chains have seen import costs rise thanks to sterling depreciation. Furthermore, she observes "lower wage growth and lower worker training in these sectors". Longer term, this sounds like a recipe for lower productivity, which would be bad for Britain's economic output, exports and the balance of payments.
Meanwhile, some studies suggest that research productivity is slowing down, so that it takes more scientists to glean each new insight across a variety of fields.
Fighting this slowdown is a worthy goal, but a difficult one. If countries could boost innovation at will, living standards would soar. Instead, the best that governments can hope for is to accelerate the rate of progress by a modest amount.
Economists Nicholas Bloom
, John Van Reenen
and Heidi Williams have a new paper outlining possible ways to make that happen.
A Toolkit of Policies to Promote Innovation
, Nicholas Bloom , John Van Reenen , Heidi Williams. Journal of Economic Perspectives vol. 33, no. 3, Summer 2019 (pp. 163-184).
Congratulations to Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo and Michael Kremer for being awarded the The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, 2019.
The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has recognised Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo, Michael Kremer for "for their experimental approach to alleviating global poverty":
"Despite recent dramatic improvements, one of humanity’s most urgent issues is the reduction of global poverty, in all its forms. More than 700 million people still subsist on extremely low incomes. Every year, around five million children under the age of five still die of diseases that could often have been prevented or cured with inexpensive treatments. Half of the world’s children still leave school without basic literacy and numeracy skills.
This year’s Laureates have introduced a new approach to obtaining reliable answers about the best ways to fight global poverty. In brief, it involves dividing this issue into smaller, more manageable, questions – for example, the most effective interventions for improving educational outcomes or child health. They have shown that these smaller, more precise, questions are often best answered via carefully designed experiments among the people who are most affected.
In the mid-1990s, Michael Kremer and his colleagues demonstrated how powerful this approach can be, using field experiments to test a range of interventions that could improve school results in western Kenya.
Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Duflo, often with Michael Kremer, soon performed similar studies of other issues and in other countries. Their experimental research methods now entirely dominate development economics."
We are delighted to celebrate with Michael Kremer who is currently visiting STICERD.
Dr Tania Burchardt was at the Irish Human Rights and Equality Commission in
Dublin today talking about the importance of collecting and using equality data.
slides are available here.