|This centre is a member of The LSE Research Laboratory [RLAB]: CASE | CVER | CEP | SERC | STICERD||Cookies?|
Paper No' CEPSP35: | Full paper
Save Reference as: BibTeX File | EndNote Import File
Keywords: brexit, globalization, populism
JEL Classification: D92; E22; D8; C23
Is hard copy/paper copy available? YES - Paper Copy Still In Print.
This Paper is published under the following series: CEP Special Reports
Share this page: Google Bookmarks | Facebook | Twitter
Abstract:Alongside the victory of Donald Trump in the 2016 US elections, Britain’s vote to leave the European Union (“Brexit”) in June 2016 reflects a global upsurge in populism. I find that under all plausible scenarios Brexit will make the average UK household poorer than the alternative of remaining in the European Union. The welfare loss is larger if the UK leaves the Single Market (a “hard Brexit) and larger still (6% to 9% of GDP) when the dynamic effects of productivity losses are factored in. This damage hits the poor as much as the rich and is unlikely to be offset by new trade deals which cannot replicate the sustained reduction in non-tariff barriers that the Single Market has engineered.
Copyright © RLAB & LSE 2003 - 2018 | LSE, Houghton Street, London WC2A 2AE | Contact: RLAB | Site updated 18 July 2018