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Paper No' CEPDP0694: | Full paper
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Keywords: ECB communication; transparency, monetary policy forecast, empirical reaction function, Euribor rate curve
JEL Classification: E43; E52; E58; G14
Is hard copy/paper copy available? YES - Paper Copy Still In Print.
This Paper is published under the following series: CEP Discussion Papers
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Abstract:This paper analyses the ECB communication, focusing in particular on its transparency dimension. We posit that if the ECB is transparent about its future policy decisions, then we should be able to forecast fairly well its future interest rate setting behaviour. We find that the predicting ability of the European monetary authority’s words, is similar to the one implied by market-based measures of monetary policy expectations. Moreover, the ECB’s wording provides complementary, rather than substitute, information with respect to economic and monetary variables.
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